{"id":4345,"date":"2022-08-16T08:25:55","date_gmt":"2022-08-16T11:25:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/?p=4345"},"modified":"2022-08-16T08:25:57","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T11:25:57","slug":"propagation-and-space-wx-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/16\/propagation-and-space-wx-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Propagation and Space WX&#8230;."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>SFI = 131 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A index = 6 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>K index = 2 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SSN = 92<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CHANCE OF FLARES:\u00a0<\/strong>Sunspot AR3078 has developed an unstable delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters say there is a 30% chance of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spaceweather.com\/glossary\/flareclasses.html\">M-class<\/a>\u00a0flares and a 10% chance of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/svs.gsfc.nasa.gov\/10833\">X-flares<\/a>\u00a0today. Any explosions will be geoeffective as the sunspot is almost directly facing Earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spaceweather.com\/images2022\/16aug22\/hmi200.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"391\" height=\"391\" \/><figcaption>Sunspot AR3078 has a delta-class magnetic field <br>that poses a threat for\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spaceweather.com\/glossary\/flareclasses.html\">X-class<\/a>\u00a0solar flares. Credit: SDO\/HMI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A CANNIBAL CME IS COMING:\u00a0<\/strong>On Aug. 14th, a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/spaceweatherarchive.com\/2022\/08\/16\/dark-plasma-eruption-from-a-reversed-polarity-sunspot\/\">dark plasma eruption<\/a>\u00a0hurled one CME toward Earth. On Aug. 15th, an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sdowww.lmsal.com\/sdomedia\/ssw\/media\/ssw\/ssw_client\/data\/ssw_service_220815_015608_10858\/www\/SSW_cutout_20220815T0420-20220815T0534_AIA_131-193-171_S26W41_ssw_cutout_20220815_042008_aia_131_S26W41_20220815_042006_j.html\">exploding magnetic filament<\/a>\u00a0launched another one right behind it. The two CMEs will arrive together on Aug.18th, according to the latest forecast model from NOAA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.spaceweather.com\/images2022\/16aug22\/cme_model_crop_strip.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This could be a &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/svs.gsfc.nasa.gov\/20067\">Cannibal CME<\/a>&#8221; event. In other words, the second CME might overtake and gobble up the first, creating a mish-mash of the two. Cannibal CMEs contain tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this case, NOAA forecasters expect\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spaceweather.com\/glossary\/g1.jpg\">G1<\/a>\u00a0(minor) to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spaceweather.com\/glossary\/g2.jpg\">G2-class<\/a>\u00a0(moderate) geomagnetic storms. During such storms naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as New York and Idaho (geomagnetic latitude 55 degrees).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NOAA Alerts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5<br>Serial Number: 154<br>Issue Time: 2022 Aug 16 0816 UTC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5<br>Begin Time: 2022 Aug 16 0752 UTC<br>Maximum Time: 2022 Aug 16 0758 UTC<br>End Time: 2022 Aug 16 0805 UTC<br>X-ray Class: M5.0<br>Optical Class: na<br>Location: S24W08<br>NOAA Scale: R2 &#8211; Moderate<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at<br>www.swpc.noaa.gov\/noaa-scales-explanation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.<br>Radio &#8211; Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SFI = 131 A index = 6 K index = 2 SSN = 92 CHANCE OF FLARES:\u00a0Sunspot AR3078 has developed an unstable delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters say there is a 30% chance <a href=\"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/16\/propagation-and-space-wx-7\/\" class=\"read-more\">Read more\u2026 <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archive"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4345"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4345\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4346,"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4345\/revisions\/4346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.summersidearc.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}