Propagation and Space Weather….

SFI = 124

A index = 10

K index = 2

SSN = 97

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of M-class solar flares today. With 8 numbered sunspot groups on the solar disk, a flare could come from almost anywhere. The most likely source would be fast-growing sunspot AR3081, which is nearly facing Earth.

BREAKING WAVE: Yesterday in the core of sunspot AR3078, an S-shaped strand of magnetism erupted. What happened next was a little unusual. A blast wave shot out sideways and broke against the wall of a nearby coronal hole:

Coronal holes are voids in the sun’s atmosphere where magnetic fields open up, allowing solar wind to escape. The hole’s nearly vertical magnetic walls and outflowing stream of solar wind stopped this blast in its tracks.

The S-shaped filament, called a “sigmoid,” re-formed after the explosion. Sigmoids are notoriously unstable, so more eruptions may be in the offing.

Sunspot AR3081 is growing rapidly and could
soon become a source of Earth-directed flares.

NOAA Alerts

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3222
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 14 0536 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3221
Begin Time: 2022 Aug 08 1645 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6243 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.